Side-by-side comparison showcasing the relative conventional fighting strengths of Russia and Ukraine for the year 2023. 72% 0. When @BryanAlexander is futuring about you, youd better start futuring yer own dang self! As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 373rd day, we take a look at the main developments. A year after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sparked the largest conflict in Europe since World War II, the repercussions . The ripple effects of Russia's war in Ukraine continue to change the world. To view reviews within a date range, please click and drag a selection on a graph above or click on a specific bar. 01:18. Local children play in front of a church damaged during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in Kolychivka, Ukraine, April 27, 2022. As the Russia-Ukraine war enters its 374th day, we take a look at the main developments. Also, in the game, the air and missile strikes took place before the ground offensive began, whereas in real life the Russians appear to have forgone a strike phase of operations in favor of launching their strike campaign simultaneously with the ground offensive. The defenses north of Kyiv had not broken and if supported they may have held for a considerable period. One of us ran the wargame while the others played the Ukrainian and Russian forces. The United States intends to replace its existing fleet of Minuteman III missiles which came into service in the early 1970s with a new . Patchy control. Let us know in the comments section here. But the official said Russia could also initiate actions against Nato members . NAVY PLANS 'BLUE FORCE' OPEN WATER WEAPONS STRATEGY FOR NEW FRIGATE. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. If you enjoyed the video, drop a LIKE and SUBSCRIBE for more. More info. The scenario the group decided to test back in late 2019 was similar to today: Russia decided to invade Ukraine under the excuse that it is must defend Russian-speaking peoples that are being oppressed by Ukraines fascist government, Kazianis wrote in his March 4, 2022 piece. The consequences of a nuclear war for life on Earth would be "unimaginable", Glaser said. (thanks to Brian Tain for this post and for answering my question, as well as to Lennaert van Mierlo and the Association of Professional Futurists, especially Josh Calder and Stephen Aguilar-Milan, plus Viktor Motti. Mutual Fund and ETF data provided by Refinitiv Lipper. As artifacts, they can appear in the form of playable materials (i.e., games) or as descriptions of a simulation being run. Only in the south have we seen the Russians making the kind of rapid advances that were expected to take place throughout Ukraine. Before its weapon systems are destroyed, Russia fires missiles launched from silos, road-mobile vehicles, and submarines. Nine countries in the world possess nuclear weapons. A simulation shows how a nuclear war between Russia and NATO could potentially play out in a horrific scenario that would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Kazianis is the director of defence studies at the Center for the National Interest, a think tank based in Washington DC. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters), Chilling World War III 'wargames' show US forces crushed by Russia and China. If he used them, he would probably lose China.. The immediate fatalities and casualties that would occur in each phase of the conflict are determined using data from NUKEMAP, an online tool that was developed by Alex Wellerstein at the Stevens Institute of Technology. There are multiple objects that can be affected by your actions: Tanks . The Russians attacking out of the Crimea are already advancing on Mykolaiv, a distance of approximately 150 miles from their line of departure in Crimea. In fact, news reports indicate that is already happening. Both were targets of the Russian ground and air assault, as a separate combined air and amphibious assault landed on the west side of the Dnieper to envelop Ukrainian defensive positions along the river line. Today's video presents a war simulation, which maps out a war between Russia and Ukraine. In short, unlike in the game, the Russian attacks were damaging but insufficient to overwhelm Ukraines defenses. In 2019, Harry J. Kazianis participated in an American simulation of a war between Russia and the U.S.-led North Atlantic Treaty Organization. Both of these actions were, however, discussed by the players in the wargame. In the game the Russian advance out of the Crimea was their most rapid and successful operation. Simultaneously, a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, while a massive military gamble for China, would also pose a huge challenge for U.S. forces in the area. Click. Billionaire Oleg Deripaska said Russia could find its coffers empty already next year and needs investment from "friendly" countries to break the hold of . In 2020, Russia spent $61.7bn on its military which accounted for 11.4 percent of government spending. March 1, 2023, 1:37 a.m. Putin joined Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko for a "major military . The nuclear exchange quickly escalates in Europe with Russia sending 300 warheads via aircraft and short-range missiles to hit NATO bases and advancing troops. Enter your email address to follow this blog and receive notifications of new posts by email. Get a daily look at whats developing in science and technology throughout the world. Also, this is my first video in a while without commentation. They added it was a limited response and did not say what type of target the US military had simulated attacking. Interestingly, the article breaks down pros and cons, concluding that such an invasion should be unlikely to occur. Gotta love @BryanAlexanders ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. A simulation may resemble a game, or be one, as with wargames or business simulations. As the Russian invasion of Ukraine continues, many wonder how it might conclude. The conflict followed fighting in Ukraine. Please check your browser settings to ensure that it is not blocking Facebook from running on straight.com. This video is a war simulation between Ukraine and Russia.This video was not made to offend anyone! Tamara Patton, Moritz Ktt, Alex Glaser, Alex Wellerstein, Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, Zia Mian, Jeff Snyder, Everyone Practices Cancel Culture | Opinion, Deplatforming Free Speech is Dangerous | Opinion. Also in the south, Russia has continued air, missile and artillery strikes in recent days, with targets including Zaporizhzhia City.Ukraine says it has also struck Russian positions in . The military escalation in the Ukraine came as an unexpected tragedy. A NATO statement in October said: Steadfast Noon involves training flights with dual-capable fighter jets, as well as conventional jets, backed by surveillance and refuelling aircraft. Still, even if one accepts that the Russians are trying to limit Ukrainian casualties and infrastructure damage, it is difficult to ignore the fact the Russians have been slow off the mark. Feb 25, 2023 2:35 PM EST. Since current events gradually render these alternate histories, they may also serve as interesting historical notes. The GFP country comparison form is provided to allow you to make direct, side-by-side comparisons of any two world powers represented in the GFP database. The researcher notes that the key domains of warfare are contested from the start of hostilities. The livestream of a videogame superimposed with a banner that reads "Breaking News" and "Russia vs Ukraine war start (sic)" has triggered confusion online. 2023 FOX News Network, LLC. As stories they are very accessible, allowing us to imagine ourselves in them. By still being able to communicate to the outside world, Zelenskyy has single-handedly changed the strategic balance rallied Western support beyond what anyone could have foreseen, to include anti-tank weapon support from both Germany and Sweden. Russia has more than 15,857 armored fighting . Three days later on February 27, the Russian leader put his countrys nuclear forces on high alert, saying NATO officials have made aggressive statements. Actual events also highlight the importance of the human domain and how difficult it is to effectively model or assess prior to conflict. STRATFOR created several scenarios describing different Russian invasion strategies: The reality looks most like Hold East Ukraine. This appears to be exactly what the Russian forces have been attempting in the first 96-hours of the war. Thus, they have held back much of their overwhelming fires complex to avoid destroying significant amounts of infrastructure and killing too many of their Ukrainian brothers. This was the reasoning employed in the game, and most current reporting shows it was the thinking dominating the Kremlin. Liked it? It must now be dawning upon senior commanders and possibly even Putin that they have grossly miscalculated, and are now in violation of Clausewitzs most important dictum: The first, the supreme, the most far reaching act of judgement that the statesman and a commander have to make is to establish the kind of war on which they are embarking; neither mistaking it for, nor trying to turn it into, something that is alien to its nature. Its aim is to highlight the "potentially catastrophic" consequences of a nuclear war between Russia and NATO. RAND Senior Defense Analyst David Ochmanek discussed the simulations at the Center for a New American Security(CNAS) in Washington D.C. last week. Russia-Ukraine War. PLAN A. SGS developed a new simulation for a plausible escalating war between the United States and Russia using realistic nuclear force postures, targets and fatality estimates. They send salvos that are so great that we cannot intercept all the missiles, Ochmanek said. Image: Andrey Rudakov/Bloomberg. "I would not want to speculate how long it would take for humanity to recover," Glaser said. The conflict followed fighting in Ukraine. Putin has, however, previously shown a willingness to defy even the most pessimistic of his critics, by invading Ukraine and allegedly using a nerve agent against a former KGB officer in Salisbury. In the wargame, the Russian 1st Guards Tank Army attacked on an axis aimed at the Dnieper River bend, intent on bypassing Kharkiv to the north while the 20th Combined Arms Army approached the outskirts of Kharkiv. Its freely available to download and play. The chaos of the past week might be incorrectly comforting. On the third day of the wargame, the Russians launched a combined ground, air, and amphibious assault on the Ukrainian defenses around Kherson accelerated in execution due to the short time available to play the game. Sign in to add this item to your wishlist, follow it, or mark it as ignored. The simulation culminated with Chinese missile strikes raining down on U.S. bases and warships in the region, and a lightning air and amphibious assault on the island of Taiwan. Set against this backdrop, U.S. military outposts and aircraft carriers in the contested regions could face a potential devastating barrage of missiles. Simulations perform a similar function, as a given run-through constitutes a narrative. Before NATO can impose its no-fly zone, Putin orders strikes on any remaining airfields and military assets around Lviv, Kazianis related. Simply use the dropdowns below to select your global powers. Other Russians forces appear to have captured the key town of Melitopol, and are advancing on the port of Berdyansk and Mariupol. So, yeah, that is pretty standard both for political reasons to signal and also to actually prepare for that situation if it did happen.. Russia obtained complete victory within five days. It may turn out the Russian advance was slowed due to political directives, but, at the moment, many observers can fairly attribute much of what is being reported from the battlefield to general Russian incompetence. It is estimated that there would be more than 90 million people dead and injured within the first few hours of the conflict. International Atomic Energy Agency in 24/7 response mode after fire at site of Ukrainian nuclear power plant, Vladimir Putin puts Russian nuclear forces on high alert, Noam Chomsky calls on Justin Trudeau to sign January 22's UN Nuclear Ban Treaty, Georgia Straight guide to the 34th annual Dancing on the Edge festival, Education: Upgrade your skills for a dramatically new world. Our Ukraine wargame is part of a series of operational level wargames designed by Marine Corps University to support professional military education and help students develop an understanding of the many operational challenges associated with all domain warfare and Great Power conflict. Famous and foundational think tank RAND gamed a Russian attack on the Baltic nations. The four-minute audiovisual piece called "Plan A", which was developed by researchers associated with Princeton University's Program on Science & Global Security (SGS), has seen renewed interest since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine. A former Royal Air Force chief has warned a nuclear war is no longer unthinkable as Russia continues to escalate its assault on Ukraine. This may be where simulations and scenarios become useful. In one a Russian invasion of Ukraine develops into war with NATO, and Moscows forces are ultimately defeated. The damage done to Ukraines air defense system was extensive, neutralizing the core integrated air defense network in the first two days, although the dispersion of Ukraines BUK systems assured a residual anti-air capability. Nathan Barrick, Ph.D., a strategist at US Special Operations Command, is currently a student at the Marine Corps War College and a former U.S. Army Russian foreign area officer. Such a scenario would result in the deaths of millions of people around the world within hours. ET, November 22, 2022 Ukraine expresses outrage after Hungarian prime minister's scarf shows western Ukraine as part of . In February 2020, the Pentagon announced that the US had launched a simulated nuclear strike against Russia. Editor's note: Don't miss our comprehensive guide to Russia's war against Ukraine . Putin and Lukashenko attended nuclear drills just before Russia invaded Ukraine. Vladyslav Musiienko / Reuters. This project is aimed at developing a new simulation to explore nuclear war between the United States and Russia and the role of the current fleet of 400 on-alert silo-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) in U.S. nuclear strategy and plans. James Lacey, Ph.D., holds the Horner Chair of War Studies at Marine Corps University. Again, this is almost precisely what we are seeing on the ground in Ukraine on the wars fifth day. s ability to catalyze a conversation without leaning on hyperbole or triggers. And how has the war in Ukraine shifted things for the group? A screenshot taken from the Plan A nuclear war simulation. So, although the number of actual strikes made by the Russians in the conflicts first 24-hours tracked almost exactly to what was employed by the Russians in the wargame, the impact was substantially different. Feb. 21, 2022. Will Putin conquer the whole nation, or move on to new targets? | Rob Reynolds, Two figures for generative AI: the calculator and the mad scientists assistant, Another queen sacrifice might be in the works, this time in Virginia. The sound is by Jeff Snyder. Also, at the start of the campaign, the Russians avoided striking at the four regional Ukrainian command and control headquarters, in order to allow them to communicate their surrender if the government collapsed. Figure 3: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Eastern Front. Figure 4: Wargame Situation End of Game Day 3 Southern Front. A video claims to show war between Russia and Ukraine before the former had invaded the latter. NATO carries out its own annual nuclear exercises, the most recent codenamed Steadfast Noon. If you want to see more war simulations, let me know in the comments. In the wargame, the main Russian ground offensive was purposely delayed, as the Russian players focused on several days of shaping fires aimed at destroying critical enemy capabilities before committing the bulk of their ground forces. All rights reserved. Ukraine and Russia explained in ten maps and charts. File photo - Infantrymen of the 3rd Battalion, 69th Armored Regiment, 1st Brigade, 3rd Infantry Division, fire M1A2 System Enhancement Package Version 2 vehicles on Tapa Army Base, Nov. 13, 2015. This game is fun, has some glitches but overall is a good rea. ET. The 36-minute video ( here ) was . The video is sped up, obviously, and the invasion clearly would not. The heroic resistance of the Ukrainians inspires awe and admiration. Players take up the roles of Russia, the Ukrainian government, Ukrainian Separatists, the USA, and the European Union. This ends up being the last straw for NATO, which then decides direct intervention in Ukraine is necessary to push back against Russian aggression, Kazianis wrote. While many observers were surprised by the Russian approach, it was the course of action chosen by the Russian player in the game. On the fifth day of the war, we find a similar situation, with the Russian forces having flowed out of the Crimea into close to the same positions they occupied in the wargame, and with the same choices before them as we found in the wargame. At the time the game ended, this major ground fight all along the river in the vicinity of Kherson and along the shores of the Black Sea just to the south and west of Kherson was still developing. Videos can span from fixing the borders to mapping out war scenarios. In terms of computer wargames, Operational Art of War IV apparently has some levels displaying Russian and Ukrainian armies at war. Almost all of it took place within the game or was discussed at length among the players. Will Russia and Ukraine reach a peace settlement? The public announcement of these exercises might be for one of two reasons, security expert Dr David Blagden told Express.co.uk. This situation is worsened by something becoming more apparent by the day; the Russian militarys capacity to conduct a vast joint and combined arms assault may not be quite as good as advertised. Your email address will not be published. First, the amount of fires employed in the wargame was only a fraction of what the Russians had available. Within 48 to 72 hours, Russian forces are able to reach a capital of a Baltic state, he said. The images evoke scenes in Kyiv and Kharkiv as the Ukrainian cities face a growing Russian invasion. There are just two bridges on the southern sector of the Dnieper River which are key terrain. Josh Calder shared this infographic with me, developing a sequence of events for three different ways forward: diplomacy, irregular war, and a conventional attack. The preceding scenarios depict futures as narratives. Next War: Poland simulates a Russian invasion of that nation. But as the conflict continues and Russian frustrations grow over their failure to rapidly collapse Ukrainian resistance, one can expect the Russians to revert to type and start employing their overwhelming superiority in artillery and airpower much more indiscriminately. In the final stage of the conflict, both Russia and NATO target the 30 most populated cities and economic centers of the other sideusing 5-10 nuclear warheads on each depending on population sizein an attempt to inhibit the potential for recovery. What is the Wagner Group? This stands in stark contrast to what Russia has achieved in its actual operations. Enter up to 375 characters to add a description to your widget: Copy and paste the HTML below into your website to make the above widget appear. The more well-equipped and modernized units, he said, have moved into the area close to two breakaway provinces in Ukraine's east, where Russia instigated a separatist war in 2014 that continues . Likewise, Russia carried out its own strategic nuclear drills just a matter of days before invading Ukraine. Between Russia and the US alone, scientists concluded a nuclear war would kill 3.1 million people within 45 minutes. New video: https://youtu.be/gtC8T_iernk [Afghanistan] Subscribe and turn on notifications to stay updated with new uploads!Military simulationFollow us:ht. By the time the wargame ended, the overall situation appeared very much as it does on the ground in Ukraine, with only two major deviations. At the same time, the Ukrainian team hoped to make Kharkiv a second Stalingrad, which would suck ever-increasing numbers of Russian forces into a bloody attritional fight. Several scenarios via the excellent Naked Capitalism blog. It is therefore noteworthy that aside from Anonymous declaring cyber war on Russia, there is very little public reporting of actual cyberattacks by either side. With much of Europe destroyed, NATO launches around 600 warheads from U.S.-land and submarine-based missiles at Russian nuclear forces. In our games, where we fight China or Russia blue gets its a** handed to it, not to put too fine a point on it, he said, during a panel discussion. AIR FORCE BUILDS NEW DEEP STRIKE 'SPY NETWORK' FOR AIR ATTACK. But the game differed in several major aspects from what most analysts expected prior to the war. As the Ukrainian government made a political calculation not to mobilize or move units into defensive positions, this map likely represents where most Ukrainian military formations started the war. The Russian-led Valdai Club published an invasion story which looks pretty close to reality so far. To the end of assessing the consequences of the Ukrainian conflict on the Russian economy, this paper distinguishes four different processes: the structural downturn of the Russian economy prior to the events in Ukraine ; the initial impact - i.e. By David Leonhardt. While the game does make allowance for aspects of the human domain, it is hard to factor in things like the courageous leadership being demonstrated by Zelenskyy and its impact on the will of the fighting forces and the Ukrainian people. In the north, a Ukrainian brigade conducted a spoiling attack against Russian forces across the border in Belarus. Is @BryanAlexander a wizard because he wrote about the possibility of a pandemic in 2018? apart from the sanctions - of the degradation of the situation in Ukraine . File photo - Artillerymen of 1st Battalion, 41st Field Artillery Regiment fire M109 Alpha 6 Paladins, on Tapa Army Base, Estonia, Nov. 27, 2015. Russias apparent reticence to bury Ukraines military under a blanket of fire has surprised many Western observers. (U.S. Army photo by: Sgt Caitlyn Byrne, 10th Press Camp Headquarters). Over the holidays, stuck at home sick so just fell into not getting dressed. You are really sick sociopaths to play Gods and engineer futures. The Ukrainian military and people are putting up much stouter resistance than Putin or any of his senior-most commanders anticipated. The simulation was developed by Alex Wellerstein, Tamara Patton, Moritz Ktt, and Alex Glaser with assistance from Bruce Blair, Sharon Weiner, and Zia Mian. That's not true. Required fields are marked *, Notify me of followup comments via e-mail. While it is possible, of course, that a nuclear exchange remains "limited" and the other side backs off or responds with conventional weapons only, there would be huge pressure on decision-makers to "respond in kind" and deny the side to strike first any advantage. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, 2023 Valve Corporation. Join half a million readers enjoying Newsweek's free newsletters. On sunny weekends, he and his family are usually found on beaches and in parks. In this video I play Eastern Theatre War Simulator a Roblox game where it is Russia Vs Ukraine. A post game analysis decided that it would have been better to keep the Ukrainian force in the city per the original plan and turn Kharkiv into a fortress city. Realizing that these forces were at high risk of envelopment and could not withstand an all-out assault by Russias 8thCombined Arms Army, the decision was made to withdraw to the Dnieper River, with the exception of the Ukrainian 92nd Mechanized Brigade plus parts of the 53rd and 54th Mechanized Brigades, which were sent to consolidate positions in and around Kharkiv. Fact-Check | Video game simulation video from a game called ARMA 3 has gone viral with social media users claiming that it shows live visuals of the war between Russia and Ukraine. Theyre showing them that theyre taking that contingency seriously.. Eastern Front Military War Simulator . Based on a variety of wargame simulations, a clash with Russia in the Baltic states would result in the rapid defeat of U.S. forces and their allies.
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